Star Wars - an episodes battle
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31686/ijier.vol8.iss6.2428Keywords:
misperceptions of randomness;, random walk;, discrete arc sin law;, combinatorial methods;Abstract
Mlodinow (2008) proposed a crazy market experiment: to release the same film under two titles: Star Wars: Episode A and Star Wars: Episode B. Their marketing campaigns and distribution schedule are identical except by their titles on trailers and ads. He looks at the first 20,000 moviegoers and record the film they choose to see. He claims it is most probable the lead never changes, and it is 88 times more likely that one of the two films will be int the lead through all 20,000 customers than it is that the lead continuously seesaw. We present a detailed mathematical explanation for Mlodinow claims.
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References
K. C. Border. “Simple Random Walk”. 2017. Available at: http://www.math.caltech.edu/~2016-17/2term/ma003/Notes/Lecture16.pdf.
W. Feller. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1957.
________. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications. John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1968.
L. Mlodinow. The Drunkard's Walk. Pantheon Books, 2008.
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Copyright (c) 2020 PatrÃcia Nunes da Silva, Monica Almeida Gama, André Luiz Cordeiro dos Santos
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Accepted 2020-06-02
Published 2020-06-01
