Effects of climate change on the sugarcane productivity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31686/ijier.vol5.iss4.680Keywords:
agricultural modeling, bioenergy, saccharum officinarum, scenario simulationAbstract
The progressive increase in global temperature causes concern worldwide, which is constantly looking for ways to minimize the impacts caused to the environment as a result of human activities in the last decades.As a result, “clean energy” has been the solution to control pollution and global warming, as they cause low environmental impacts.Today, biofuels and mainly bioethanol derived essentially from sugarcane replaces fossil fuels very efficiently.Due to the high influence and relevance that sugarcane exerts nationally, in relation to the economic and environmental issue, it is vitally important to think about how its production system will be in scenarios that consider climate change.In order to analyze this system is necessary to obtain data, not always easily obtained in field research, for this reason, the agricultural modeling through the simulation of scenarios can contribute by predicting situations and helping to make future decisions.Therefore, an APSIM® simulation model was proposed, validating it with local data and later the effects of climate change on sugarcane productivity were studied through agricultural modeling simulating three (3) scenarios with change in average air temperature and CO2 concentration:S1 without climate change (current), S2 (year 2020) with change of + 0.24°C and increase of +26 ppm of CO2, S3 (year 2040) with change of +0.84°C and increase of +114 ppm of CO2 and S4 (year of 2080) with change of + 1.14°C and increase of +201 ppm of CO2.The studied climatic change scenarios may lead to higher stalks and sugar productivity per hectare due to higher rates of CO2 fixation and temperature increase.
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