Holt-Winters Forecasting for Brazilian Natural Gas Production

• Rhuan Carlos Martins Ribeiro

  The Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)

  Author

• Glauber Tadaiesky Marques

  Federal Rural University of Amazonia (UFRA)

  Author

• Paulo Cerqueira dos Santos Júnior

  Cyberspatial Institute (ICIBE)

  Author

• José Felipe Souza de Almeida

  Environmental Engineering & Renewable Energies (EAER)

  Author

• Pedro Silvestre da Silva Campos

  Av. Presidente Tancredo Neves

  Author

• Otavio Chase

  Amazonia Federal Rural University (UFRA)

  Author

Nowadays, the market for natural gas production and its use as a source of energy supply has been growing substantially in Brazil. However, the use of tools that assist the industry in the management of production can be essential for the strategic decision-making process. In this intuit, this work aims to evaluate the formulation of Holt Winter's additive and multiplicative time series to forecast Brazilian natural gas production. A comparison between the models and their forecast play a vital role for policymakers in the strategic plan, and the models estimated production values ​​for the year 2018 based on the information contained in the interval between 2010 and 2017. Therefore, It was verified that the multiplicative method had a good performance so that we can conclude this formulation is ideal for such an application since all the predicted results by this model showed greater accuracy within the 95% confidence interval.

1. Rhuan Carlos Martins Ribeiro, The Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)

   Scientific initiation scholar

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Copyright (c) 2019 Rhuan Carlos Martins Ribeiro, Glauber Tadaiesky Marques, Paulo Cerqueira dos Santos Júnior, José Felipe Souza de Almeida, Pedro Silvestre da Silva Campos, Otavio Andre Chase

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