Electricity consumption, corruption and economic growth
Evidence on selected African countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31686/ijier.vol6.iss4.1023Keywords:
Africa, electricity consumption, economic growth, corruption, panel co-integration, panel dataAbstract
An important prerequisite for reducing poverty, sustainable development and achievement of the millennium development goal has to some extent been tied to access to electricity. However, the subject matter; 'electricity consumption causing economic growth' has seen conflicting results from the theoretical and empirical front, if indeed a relationship exist at all.
The study tests, within a panel context the long-run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for 13 African Countries from 2006 to 2017 by employing recently developed panel co-integration techniques. Implementing a three stage approach made up of panel unit root, panel co-integration and Granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption, electricity price, corruption, employment and growth.
The study provides empirical evidence that a bidirectional causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth exist in the short run, suggesting that lack of electricity could hamper economic growth as well as an investment in electricity infrastructure would in turn improve economic growth. Also reveals that corruption causes the level of electricity consumption and GDP in the short run. On the long-run front electricity consumption and electricity price granger causes GDP and GDP causes electricity consumption.
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References
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Altinay, G. & Karagol, E. (2005) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey' Energy Economics, Issue 27, pp. 849-856.
Apergis, N. & Payne, J. (2009a) 'Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: evidence from a panel co-integration and error correction model' Energy Economics, Volume 31, pp. 211-216.
Aqeel, A. & Butt, M. (2001) 'The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan', Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(2), pp. 101-110.
Bertrand, M., Djankov, S., Hanna, R. & Mullainathan, S. (2008) 'Corruption in the Driving Licensing Process in Delhi', Economic and Political Weekly, pp. 71-76.
Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans J, M. (1975) 'Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 37(2), pp. 149-192.
Chen, S. T., Kuo, H. I. & Chen, C. C. (2007) 'The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries', Energy Policy, Issue 35, pp. 2611-2621.
Ciarreta, A. & Zarraga, A. (2010) 'Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach', Energy Policy, 38(7), pp. 3790-3796.
Clarke J, A. & Mirza, S. (2006) 'Comparison of some common methods for detecting', Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76(3), p. 207–231.
Dolado, J. J. & Lütkepohl, H. (1996) 'Making Wald tests work for co-integrated VAR systems', Econometric Reviews, 4(15), pp. 369-386.
Eggoh, J. C., Bangake, C. & Rault, C. (2011) 'Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in Africam Countries', Energy Policy, Volume 39, p. 7408–7421.
Fatai, K., Oxley, L. & Scrimgeour, F. (2004) 'Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand', Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3-4), p. 431–445.
Ghosh, S. (2002) 'Electricity supply employment and real gdp in india', Energy Policy, Issue 30, pp. 125-129.
Granger, C. (1969) 'Investigation causal relations by econometric models and crossspectral methods', Econometrica, Volume 37, pp. 424-438.
Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1974) 'Spurious regressions in econometrics', Journal Econometrica, Volume 2, p. 111–120.
Gregory, A. & Hansen, B. (1996) 'Residual-based tests for co-integration in models with regime shifts', Journal Econometrica, Volume 70, p. 99–126..
Hanna, R. et al. (2011) 'The effectiveness of anti-corruption policy: what has worked, what hasn‟t, and what we don‟t know–a systematic review', London: Social Science Research Unit, Institute of Education, University of London.
Hansen, B. (1992) 'Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes' Journal Econometrica, Volume 10, p. 321–336.
Hansen, B. & Seo, B. (2002) 'Testing for two-regime threshold co-integration in vector error correction models', Econometric, Volume 110, pp. 293-318.
Ho, C. & Siu, K. (2007) 'A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation', Energy Policy, Volume 35, p. 2507–2513.
Hsiao, C. (1981) 'Autoregressive modeling and money-income causality detection', Monetary Economics, Volume 7, p. 85–106.
Hu, J. & Lin, C. (2008) 'Disaggregated energy consumption and GDP in Taiwan: a threshold co-integration analysis', Energy Economics, Volume 30, p. 2342–2358.
Ilhan, O., Alper, A. & Huseyin, K. (2010) 'Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries', Energy Policy, Volume 38, pp. 4422-4428.
Johansen, S. (1988) 'Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors', Economic Dynamic control, Volume 12, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990) 'Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with applications to money demand', Oxford Bulletin of Economic Statistics, Volume 52, pp. 169-210.
Jumbe, C. (2004) 'Cointgration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi', Energy Economics, Volume 26, pp. 61-68.
Kennedy, P. (2003) 'A guide to econometrics', In: 5. edition, ed. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press.
Kouakou, A. K. (2011) 'Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from Time Series Analysis', Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 3638-3644.
Lambsdorff, L. (2003) 'How corruption affects productivity', Kyklos, 56(4), pp. 457-474.
Lee, C. & Chang, C. (2005) 'Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: evidence from Taiwan', Energy Economics , Volume 27, p. 857–872.
Lourdes, T. & Antonio, E. (2009) 'Corruption and infrastructure services: An overview', Utilities policy, 17(2), p. 153–155.
Lütkepohl, H. (1982) 'Non-causality due to omitted variables', Econometric, Volume 19, pp. 267-378.
Mauro, P. (1995) 'Corruption and Growth', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), p. 681–712.
Morimoto, R. & Hope, C. (2004) 'The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka', Energy Economics , Volume 26, p. 77–85.
Mozumder, P. & Marathe, A. (2007) 'Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh', Energy Policy , Volume 35, p. 395–402.
Murray, D. & Nan, G. (1996) 'A definition of the gross domestic product–electrification interrelationship', Energy Development, Volume 19, p. 275–283.
Narayan, P. & Prasad, A. (2008) 'Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries', Energy Policy, Volume 36, pp. 910-918.
Narayan, P. & Singh, B. (2007) 'The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1141-1150.
Narayan, P. & Smyth, R. (2005) 'Electricity consumption, employment, and real income in Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests', Energy Policy, Volume 33, p. 1109–1116.
Narayan, P. & Smyth, R. (2009) 'Multivariate Granger-causality between electricity consumption, exports, and GDP: evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries', Energy Policy, Volume 37, pp. 229-236.
Odhiambo, N.(2009a) 'Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: an ARDL bounds testing approach', Energy Policy , Volume 37, p. 617–622.
Odhiambo, N. (2009b) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test', Energy Economics, 31(5), p. 635–640.
Olken, B. & Barron, P. (2009) 'The Simple Economics of Extortion: Evidence from Trucking in Aceh', Journal of Political Economy, 117(3), pp. 417-452.
Ouedraogo, N. S. (2013) 'Energy Consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the economic community of West Africa States (ECOWAS)', Energy Economics, Volume 36, pp. 637-647.
Ozturk, I. (2010) 'A literature survery on energy-growth nexus', Energy Policy, Volume 38, pp. 340-349.
Padroni, P. (1999) 'Critical values for co-integration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors', Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, Issue 61, pp. 653-670.
Padroni, P. (2004) 'Panel conintegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis: new results', Econometric Theory, Volume 20, pp. 597-627.
Payne, J. (2010) 'A Survey of th electricity consumption-growth literature', Applied Energy, Volume 87, pp. 723-731.
Perron, P. (1989) 'The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis', Econometrica, Volume 57, pp. 1361-1401.
Perron, P. (1997) 'Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables', Econometrica, Volume 80, pp. 355-385.
Pesaran, M. & Shin, Y. (1999) 'An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to co-integration analysis', In: Strom S, editor, Cambridge: Cambridge Univeristy Press.
Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (2001) 'Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships', Applied Econometrics, Volume 16, pp. 289-326.
Shahbaz, M., Tang, C. F. & Shabbir, M. S. (2011) 'Electricity Consumption and Economic growth nexus in Portugal Using Co-integration and Causality approaches', Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 3529-3536.
Shiu, A. & Lam, P. (2004) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in China', Energy Policy, Volume 32, pp. 47-54.
Soytas, U. & Sari, R.(2007) 'The relationship between energy and production: evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry', Energy Economics, Volume 29, p. 1151–1165..
Squalli, J. (2007) 'Electricty consumption and economic growth: bounds and cuasality analyses for OPEC members', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1192-1205.
Tang, C. (2008) 'A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia', Energy Policy, Volume 36, pp. 3077-3085.
Thoma, M. (2004) 'Electrical energy usage over the business cycle', Energy Economics, Volume 26, pp. 363-385.
Toda, H. & Yamamoto, T. (1995) 'Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes', Econometrica, Volume 66, p. 225–250.
UNIDO, (2011) 'Energy for all–time for action', s.l.: Vienna Energy Forum.
Westerlund, J. (2006) 'Testing for panel co-integration with multiple structural breaks', Oxford Bull Econom Stat , Volume 68, p. 101–132.
Wolde-Rufael,Y. (2004) 'Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai', 1952–1999.. Energy Economics , Volume 26, p. 69–75.
Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2006) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries', Energy Policy, Volume 34, pp. 309-317.
Yang, H. (2000) 'A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan', Energy Economics, Volume 22, pp. 309-317.
Yoo, S. (2005) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea', Energy Policy, Volume 33, pp. 1627-1632.
Yoo, S. (2006) The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries', Energy Policy , Volume 34, p. 3573–3582..
Yoo, S. & Kim, Y. (2007) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: co-integration and co-feature analysis', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1179-1191.
Yuan, J., Kang, J., Zhao, C. & Hu, Z. (2008) 'Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels', Energy Economics, Volume 30, pp. 3077-3094.
Zamani, M. (2007) 'Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1135-1140.
Ziramba, E. (2013) 'Hydroelectricity consumption and Econmic growth nexus: time series experience of three africa countries', European Scientific, 9(1), pp. 85-96.
Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. (1992) 'Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis', Business Economics, Volume 10, pp. 936-954.
Akinlo, A. E. (2008) 'Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African countries', Energy Economics, 30(2), pp. 2391-2400.
Altinay, G. & Karagol, E. (2005) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey' Energy Economics, Issue 27, pp. 849-856.
Apergis, N. & Payne, J. (2009a) 'Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: evidence from a panel co-integration and error correction model' Energy Economics, Volume 31, pp. 211-216.
Aqeel, A. & Butt, M. (2001) 'The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan', Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8(2), pp. 101-110.
Bertrand, M., Djankov, S., Hanna, R. & Mullainathan, S. (2008) 'Corruption in the Driving Licensing Process in Delhi', Economic and Political Weekly, pp. 71-76.
Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans J, M. (1975) 'Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 37(2), pp. 149-192.
Chen, S. T., Kuo, H. I. & Chen, C. C. (2007) 'The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian countries', Energy Policy, Issue 35, pp. 2611-2621.
Ciarreta, A. & Zarraga, A. (2010) 'Economic growth-electricity consumption causality in 12 European countries: A dynamic panel data approach', Energy Policy, 38(7), pp. 3790-3796.
Clarke J, A. & Mirza, S. (2006) 'Comparison of some common methods for detecting', Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76(3), p. 207–231.
Dolado, J. J. & Lütkepohl, H. (1996) 'Making Wald tests work for co-integrated VAR systems', Econometric Reviews, 4(15), pp. 369-386.
Eggoh, J. C., Bangake, C. & Rault, C. (2011) 'Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in Africam Countries', Energy Policy, Volume 39, p. 7408–7421.
Fatai, K., Oxley, L. & Scrimgeour, F. (2004) 'Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand', Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3-4), p. 431–445.
Ghosh, S. (2002) 'Electricity supply employment and real gdp in india', Energy Policy, Issue 30, pp. 125-129.
Granger, C. (1969) 'Investigation causal relations by econometric models and crossspectral methods', Econometrica, Volume 37, pp. 424-438.
Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1974) 'Spurious regressions in econometrics', Journal Econometrica, Volume 2, p. 111–120.
Gregory, A. & Hansen, B. (1996) 'Residual-based tests for co-integration in models with regime shifts', Journal Econometrica, Volume 70, p. 99–126..
Hanna, R. et al. (2011) 'The effectiveness of anti-corruption policy: what has worked, what hasn‟t, and what we don‟t know–a systematic review', London: Social Science Research Unit, Institute of Education, University of London.
Hansen, B. (1992) 'Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes' Journal Econometrica, Volume 10, p. 321–336.
Hansen, B. & Seo, B. (2002) 'Testing for two-regime threshold co-integration in vector error correction models', Econometric, Volume 110, pp. 293-318.
Ho, C. & Siu, K. (2007) 'A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation', Energy Policy, Volume 35, p. 2507–2513.
Hsiao, C. (1981) 'Autoregressive modeling and money-income causality detection', Monetary Economics, Volume 7, p. 85–106.
Hu, J. & Lin, C. (2008) 'Disaggregated energy consumption and GDP in Taiwan: a threshold co-integration analysis', Energy Economics, Volume 30, p. 2342–2358.
Ilhan, O., Alper, A. & Huseyin, K. (2010) 'Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries', Energy Policy, Volume 38, pp. 4422-4428.
Johansen, S. (1988) 'Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors', Economic Dynamic control, Volume 12, pp. 231-254.
Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990) 'Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with applications to money demand', Oxford Bulletin of Economic Statistics, Volume 52, pp. 169-210.
Jumbe, C. (2004) 'Cointgration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi', Energy Economics, Volume 26, pp. 61-68.
Kennedy, P. (2003) 'A guide to econometrics', In: 5. edition, ed. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press.
Kouakou, A. K. (2011) 'Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption in Cote d'Ivoire: Evidence from Time Series Analysis', Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 3638-3644.
Lambsdorff, L. (2003) 'How corruption affects productivity', Kyklos, 56(4), pp. 457-474.
Lee, C. & Chang, C. (2005) 'Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: evidence from Taiwan', Energy Economics , Volume 27, p. 857–872.
Lourdes, T. & Antonio, E. (2009) 'Corruption and infrastructure services: An overview', Utilities policy, 17(2), p. 153–155.
Lütkepohl, H. (1982) 'Non-causality due to omitted variables', Econometric, Volume 19, pp. 267-378.
Mauro, P. (1995) 'Corruption and Growth', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), p. 681–712.
Morimoto, R. & Hope, C. (2004) 'The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka', Energy Economics , Volume 26, p. 77–85.
Mozumder, P. & Marathe, A. (2007) 'Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh', Energy Policy , Volume 35, p. 395–402.
Murray, D. & Nan, G. (1996) 'A definition of the gross domestic product–electrification interrelationship', Energy Development, Volume 19, p. 275–283.
Narayan, P. & Prasad, A. (2008) 'Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: evidence from a bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries', Energy Policy, Volume 36, pp. 910-918.
Narayan, P. & Singh, B. (2007) 'The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1141-1150.
Narayan, P. & Smyth, R. (2005) 'Electricity consumption, employment, and real income in Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests', Energy Policy, Volume 33, p. 1109–1116.
Narayan, P. & Smyth, R. (2009) 'Multivariate Granger-causality between electricity consumption, exports, and GDP: evidence from a panel of middle eastern countries', Energy Policy, Volume 37, pp. 229-236.
Odhiambo, N.(2009a) 'Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: an ARDL bounds testing approach', Energy Policy , Volume 37, p. 617–622.
Odhiambo, N. (2009b) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test', Energy Economics, 31(5), p. 635–640.
Olken, B. & Barron, P. (2009) 'The Simple Economics of Extortion: Evidence from Trucking in Aceh', Journal of Political Economy, 117(3), pp. 417-452.
Ouedraogo, N. S. (2013) 'Energy Consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the economic community of West Africa States (ECOWAS)', Energy Economics, Volume 36, pp. 637-647.
Ozturk, I. (2010) 'A literature survery on energy-growth nexus', Energy Policy, Volume 38, pp. 340-349.
Padroni, P. (1999) 'Critical values for co-integration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors', Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, Issue 61, pp. 653-670.
Padroni, P. (2004) 'Panel conintegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis: new results', Econometric Theory, Volume 20, pp. 597-627.
Payne, J. (2010) 'A Survey of th electricity consumption-growth literature', Applied Energy, Volume 87, pp. 723-731.
Perron, P. (1989) 'The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis', Econometrica, Volume 57, pp. 1361-1401.
Perron, P. (1997) 'Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables', Econometrica, Volume 80, pp. 355-385.
Pesaran, M. & Shin, Y. (1999) 'An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to co-integration analysis', In: Strom S, editor, Cambridge: Cambridge Univeristy Press.
Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (2001) 'Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships', Applied Econometrics, Volume 16, pp. 289-326.
Shahbaz, M., Tang, C. F. & Shabbir, M. S. (2011) 'Electricity Consumption and Economic growth nexus in Portugal Using Co-integration and Causality approaches', Energy Policy, Volume 39, pp. 3529-3536.
Shiu, A. & Lam, P. (2004) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in China', Energy Policy, Volume 32, pp. 47-54.
Soytas, U. & Sari, R.(2007) 'The relationship between energy and production: evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry', Energy Economics, Volume 29, p. 1151–1165..
Squalli, J. (2007) 'Electricty consumption and economic growth: bounds and cuasality analyses for OPEC members', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1192-1205.
Tang, C. (2008) 'A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia', Energy Policy, Volume 36, pp. 3077-3085.
Thoma, M. (2004) 'Electrical energy usage over the business cycle', Energy Economics, Volume 26, pp. 363-385.
Toda, H. & Yamamoto, T. (1995) 'Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes', Econometrica, Volume 66, p. 225–250.
UNIDO, (2011) 'Energy for all–time for action', s.l.: Vienna Energy Forum.
Westerlund, J. (2006) 'Testing for panel co-integration with multiple structural breaks', Oxford Bull Econom Stat , Volume 68, p. 101–132.
Wolde-Rufael,Y. (2004) 'Disaggregated industrial energy consumption and GDP: the case of Shanghai', 1952–1999.. Energy Economics , Volume 26, p. 69–75.
Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2006) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries', Energy Policy, Volume 34, pp. 309-317.
Yang, H. (2000) 'A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan', Energy Economics, Volume 22, pp. 309-317.
Yoo, S. (2005) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea', Energy Policy, Volume 33, pp. 1627-1632.
Yoo, S. (2006) The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries', Energy Policy , Volume 34, p. 3573–3582..
Yoo, S. & Kim, Y. (2007) 'Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: co-integration and co-feature analysis', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1179-1191.
Yuan, J., Kang, J., Zhao, C. & Hu, Z. (2008) 'Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels', Energy Economics, Volume 30, pp. 3077-3094.
Zamani, M. (2007) 'Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran', Energy Economics, Volume 29, pp. 1135-1140.
Ziramba, E. (2013) 'Hydroelectricity consumption and Econmic growth nexus: time series experience of three africa countries', European Scientific, 9(1), pp. 85-96.
Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. (1992) 'Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis', Business Economics, Volume 10, pp. 936-954.
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Agbaje, B. A., & Idachaba, E. (2018). Electricity consumption, corruption and economic growth: Evidence on selected African countries. International Journal for Innovation Education and Research, 6(4), 193-214. https://doi.org/10.31686/ijier.vol6.iss4.1023
