Evolution of COVID19 new cases in 16 countries and Scenarios for Brazil using metaphorical analysis of Board, Inverted Pyramid and Papyri

Abstract

Since the end of 2019, the world has become aware of a new virus that has emerged in China, which in February 2020 was called by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2019) as Coronavirus disease (COVID19). Due to its fast transmission, at 18:32 (GMT) on March 29, 2020, the world has officially accounted for about 710,950 new confirmed cases with 33,553 deaths and 150,734 recovered cases (Worldometers, 2020). The pandemic has become the newest challenge for several nations, especially the USA, Italy, China, Spain, Germany, Iran, for being the most affected, and since Brazil is a continental country with disabilities in its Unified Health System, it could be in the next two months among the five most affected. Thus, the main objective of the research is analyze the evolution of new cases of COVID19 in 16 countries to present short-term scenarios and recommendations for Brazil to face the pandemic. The research is applied, as its results and recommendations can be applied with adaptation by government authorities, business managers and citizens. The research is descriptive, with a qualitative and quantitative approach, based on bibliographic and documentary research, involving the study of articles, reports, manuals and other technical documents related to the subject. For the creation of scenarios, data collection focused on the number of new cases registered in 16 countries, including Brazil, as well as in the development of an approach using metaphorical analysis of the Board, the Inverted Pyramid and Papyri. The main conclusion is that even though no country is prepared to face epidemics and pandemics (NTI, JHU and EIU, 2019), among the 16 countries investigated, Thailand, Finland, Australia, South Korea, Denmark and Sweden are benchmarks that Brazil could study in order not to repeat the scenarios of China, USA, Italy and Spain. At the end, ten recommendations are made for future research and also to public and private managers.